Past and Future Drought Patterns in the Arabian Peninsula

A KAUST-led study, led by Prof. Ibrahim Hoteit, has analyzed 70 years of climate data to uncover drought trends across the Arabian Peninsula. Using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), the team found that rising temperatures—rather than reduced rainfall—have intensified droughts over the past two decades.

To predict future trends, researchers applied a machine learning model incorporating the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), a cyclical climate pattern affecting the region. Their findings suggest that as the AMO shifts phases, drought severity is likely to decrease over the next 20-30 years.

This research, conducted at KAUST’s Climate Change Center (CCC) in collaboration with the National Center for Meteorology, supports the development of Saudi Arabia’s first national drought monitoring system for the Ministry of Environment, Water and Agriculture (MEWA). The system is set to launch during COP16, marking a milestone in climate resilience efforts. The study also provides critical insights for major initiatives like the Saudi Green Initiative and Red Sea Global, ensuring sustainable water management in alignment with Vision 2030.

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Reference

1. Saharwardi, M. S., Dasari, H. P., Gandham, H. Ashok, K. & Hoteit, I. Spatiotemporal variability of hydro-meteorological droughts over the Arabian Peninsula and associated mechanisms. Sci. Rep. 14, 20296 (2024).| article
2. Saharwardi, M. S., Dasari, H. P., Aggarwal, V., Ashok, K. & Hoteit, I. Long-term variability in the Arabian Peninsula droughts driven by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Earth’snFuture 11, (2023).| article