Modeling the Impact of Meteorological Forces on Red Sea Sea-Level Rises

A recent KAUST study has shed light on the main drivers of sea-level surges in the Red Sea, revealing that winds in the southern part of the basin are a primary factor in shaping sea-level extremes across the entire region. This research, led by Ibrahim Hoteit and Sabique Langodan from the Red Sea Modeling and Prediction Group, is crucial for coastal planning and managing the potential impacts of storm surges.

Storm surges, driven by meteorological forces like winds and atmospheric pressure, pose significant threats to coastal communities and ecosystems. While many studies have explored these forces in other parts of the world, such as the Bay of Bengal and North Sea, similar research in the Red Sea has been limited.

The KAUST team addressed this gap by using advanced computer simulations to model sea-level variations over a 37-year period (1980-2016). By leveraging the ADCIRC storm surge model, they generated high-resolution datasets and validated them with three years of hourly sea-level data from tidal gauges along Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea coastline. These simulations allowed the researchers to separately assess the contributions of wind and atmospheric pressure to sea-level changes.

The findings indicated that wind variations in the southern Red Sea are the primary drivers of basin-wide sea-level fluctuations. The study also emphasized that understanding the dynamics of storm surges and sea-level extremes is essential for managing the growing coastal developments, including proposed megacity projects and expanding tourism, while mitigating their environmental impacts on marine life and coral reefs.

Looking ahead, the team is now investigating how climate change might alter the intensity and frequency of these sea-level extremes, a critical step in preparing for future challenges along the Red Sea coast.

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