Predicting Monthly Precipitation in the Wet Season over Saudi Arabia Using a Seasonal Prediction System

In this study, we evaluated the skill of the Scale Interaction Experiment-Frontier Research Center for Global Change, version 2 (SINTEX-F2), model in predicting precipitation over Saudi Arabia in the wet months (November–April) at 1–3-month lead times. It was found that the SINTEX-F2 model 1-month lead prediction was skillful in predicting precipitation over the southwestern regions of Saudi Arabia in November and February. Analysis revealed that the skillful prediction of precipitation in November was due to the skillful prediction of sea surface temperature anomalies in the midlatitudes of the central North Pacific and the associated atmospheric variability. In February, the skill was associated with the skillful prediction of sea surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial eastern Pacific and the associated teleconnections.

Seasonal forecasting Climate Variability Seasonal Variability