Climate Change Modeling and Projections
We are developing high-resolution climate models tailored for the Arabian Peninsula to reconstruct the history of the regional climate and project its future at a resolution not attempted before, using KAUST and NCM state-of-the-art supercomputing facilities. The developed models will be based on the WRF and RegCM regional climate models and will be capable of resolving local convections, land surface, topography, moisture transport from the surrounding marginal seas, etc., critical for reliably simulating the climate of the Arabian Peninsula. We are exploring the role of dust on the regional climate forcing.
Sub-seasonal and seasonal forecasting
We are developing subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecasting systems consisting of an ensemble sub-seasonal forecasting system (2-4 weeks lead) and an ensemble seasonal forecasting system (1-6 month lead) for the Arabian Peninsula. Our final goal under this theme is to develop an operations-ready coupled ocean-atmospheric regional S2S forecast system with a resolution of 4 km to issue both probabilistic and deterministic dynamically-downscaled S2S forecasts. We are also building a drought monitoring and forecasting system.
Climate change impacts
We are studying the potential impacts of future climate change on the climate and weather extremes, such as heatwaves, heavy rainfall events and droughts, over the Arabian Peninsula through a critical analysis of the outputs of future climate change projections, and the uncertainties therein. We will also assess climate change impacts on the general circulation and sea level rise in the Red Sea and Arabian Gulf. We are also building the climate modeling machinery to support the Saudi and Middle East Green Initiatives.
Climate dynamics and variability
We strive to diagnose the dynamical and physical processes associated with the climate variability of the Arabian Peninsula (AP) on different time scales and teleconnections with the global climate, and the mechanisms that drive the natural and anthropogenic climate change, and extreme events statistics in the region. The aim is to consolidate our knowledge of the global and local climate dynamics pertinent to the region. This will allow us to decipher the natural and anthropogenic drivers and physical mechanisms that manifest the observed changes in the regional climate.